Helena Cobban of Just World News put up a post Sunday evening about Hizbulloh leader Hassan Nasrallah’s TV interview earlier that day. More than a few commentators interpreted some of his comments as an apology for the July 12 kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers that began the month-long war in Lebanon and northern Israel. Not so, says Mouin Rabbani, a contributing editor of the Middle East Report. Here is Cobban’s report of his response to her post.
So in my view his statement was anything but a mea culpa. One can choose to accept his explanation at face value or not. But the overall (in significant part unstated) message Nasrallah sought to convey, I think, was the following:
– An Israeli war against Lebanon in 2006 was a certainty irrespective of Hizballah’s actions, because of Israeli and US intentions. Hizballah’s error was that, while it concluded already in 2000 that Israel would eventually return to Lebanon to wipe out the stain of its defeat and while Hizballah had been preparing for this for the past six years, it didn’t realise the moment was so close at hand. Thus, although it had no idea 12 July would lead to war, and would not have authorised the attack if it did, with hindsight the fact that the war occured when and how it did saved Lebanon from a much bigger - more or less imminent - calamity.
– Because Hizballah did not believe 12 July would result in war and would not have launched the attack if it did, it is out of the question that it was acting on behalf of Iran or Syria. It was an Israeli war, and could not possibly have been a Hizballah/Syrian/Iranian one, for the simple reason that it was unanticipated.
Additionally, given the extent to which Nasrallah has been presenting this as a strategic victory, I think it is highly unlikely that he intended his words to be understood as an apology or admission of a strategic error on Hizballah’s part. Seen in their full context, I think Nasrallah was claiming that 1) Hizballah does not play chess with the lives of Lebanese or the interests of the state, 2) while an error was made, it turned out to Hizballah as well as Lebanon’s advantage.
Here is Cobban’s original Sunday post.