The Strident Centrist Blog

The unreconstructed monarchist William Lind (he suggests that the world went to hell with the demise of the House of Hohenzoleren) believes that next Tueseday’s voting here in the United States may be only the first of two elections in the upcoming months that will be pivotal for our future. The other is likely to take place early next year in Israel if Tzipi Livni is unable to form government in the next week or two. Lind believes that if the Likud party wins the right to organize a cabinet, the results will probably be dire:

Those who imagine an Obama victory will see the neo-cons shown the door are in for an unpleasant surprise. Under the guise of neo-libs, they are no less influential in the Democratic establishment than in the Republican. The only way Likud could get shut out of a Democratic administration is if Obama bypasses the whole establishment in choosing his foreign and defense policy appointments. While that is fervently to be wished, it is probably not going to happen. Like figures on a medieval clock, the Republican and Democratic establishments succeed each other in an unbroken chain of policy failure.

A Likud government in Israel come next spring would make two wars virtually certain: a war between Israel and Hezbollah and another between Israel and Iran. The Israeli military leadership recently announced that in the event of another war with Hezbollah, Israel would destroy Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure throughout the country. Since the neo-libs will make certain America backs Israel to the hilt, world-wide Islamic anger over the unnecessary destruction of a small, helpless Middle Eastern country (at least a third of whose people are Christians) will focus as much on America as on Israel. Islamic 4GW organizations will get a huge boost to their recruiting and fundraising, while the legitimacy of Islamic states with ties to America will be further weakened.

. . .

It may be that elections in Israel hold more meaning for the United States than does America’s own coming vote. One writer quoted in the Washington Post said that if McCain wins, history will pay America a visit, “the shroud, the scythe and all Four Horsemen.” That may be no less true if Obama wins, unless he improbably finds the wisdom and courage to break with the Democratic Party’s foreign policy establishment. That establishment is as tied to Israel as Russia’s foreign policy establishment was tied to Serbia in 1914. Past, I suspect, is prologue.

I can understand why Obama sees a need to toe his party’s long-established line of unquestioning support of Israel during the campaign. I retain some hope, however, that he will prove to have the wisdom to make clear to the next government of that country, whatever its political stripe, that we will draw the line at supporting Israeli actions that clearly threaten our most vital national interests, and theirs as well if they could only see them. Friends don’t let friends drive drunk.